The internet is shaped by opinion. Narratives influence decisions, markets respond to sentiment, and cultural trends hold real financial weight. Yet, despite their impact, opinions have never had a direct market of their own.

Opinion Markets introduce a liquid market structure for trading sentiment. Instead of relying on social engagement alone, these markets allow speculation on the rise and fall of narratives, pricing collective belief in real time.

What Are Opinion Markets?

Opinion Markets are a new type of financial mechanism that facilitates a competitive contest between opposing viewpoints, where the side that attracts more liquidity benefits at the expense of the other. Unlike prediction markets, which resolve to a final outcome, Opinion Markets never reach a definitive conclusion. Positions shift as long as participants are willing to back them, with dynamic reward distribution as sentiment evolves.

Liquidity is both a measure of conviction and a source for rewards. Rather than settling on a single truth, the market price reflects which viewpoint is gaining traction as capital inflows dictate shifts in positioning and incentives.

As traders take positions, liquidity flows shape the market, creating a system where speculation and attention reinforce each other. The more engagement a position attracts, the stronger its impact, making Opinion Markets a dynamic space where narratives rise and fall in real time.

How Opinion Markets Work

Opinion markets provide tradable exposure to public sentiment around a person, a meme, an event, or any cultural flashpoint. Unlike traditional markets, these markets are purely sentiment-driven, with no resolutions and no external feeds – the price itself is the only oracle.

At their core, Opinion Markets function based on four key principles:

• Markets Do Not Resolve: Unlike prediction markets, opinion markets never settle to a binary outcome. There is no final truth. The market exists as long as sentiment exists, allowing pure speculation on public perception.

• Markets Are (at least) Two-Sided: Traders must be able to long or short a given entity or narrative. Simply "buying content" is not enough – markets thrive on speculative positioning where traders bet on the direction of sentiment shifts.

• Markets Form Around a Thing, Not Just an Opinion: The market itself does not need to be an opinion – it simply measures public sentiment toward an entity (e.g., a celebrity, a meme, a brand). 

• Reflexive Pricing: The price is not determined by external data feeds – the market itself is the authoritative measure of sentiment. Traders are betting on whether their side of the trade will attract more participants, pushing the price further in their direction.

With no final resolution, these markets evolve as sentiment shifts, shaped entirely by participation. By taking positions, traders directly shape which narratives gain traction and which fade away.

Based’s Approach: Opinion Markets for Content

Based brings Opinion Markets to their most natural and engaging form: content. By integrating speculation directly into internet culture, it financializes the trends and moments people already engage with daily.

A meme, a video, a tweet – each becomes a tradable financial asset, moving in response to shifts in sentiment and speculation. Users create and curate markets, ensuring that only the most high-energy, high-value content gets financialized. Based provides a liquid market structure for trading these markets, turning engagement into an active asset without artificial tokens or unnecessary complexity.

In a landscape where content already drives enormous value, Based introduces a new way to quantify and trade cultural momentum. It’s not a prediction market. It’s not a meme coin casino. It’s a real-time speculative engine that measures and moves the cultural pulse – a system where belief, attention, and financial value converge.

Where Opinion Markets Fit in the Digital Economy

Opinion Markets turn engagement into something more than a passive metric. As traders take positions, they influence which ideas gain momentum and which fade into the background. Unlike traditional speculation, where markets track external outcomes, these markets exist entirely within the flow of conversation and cultural relevance.

Based applies this model to content, where speculation and attention already overlap. By creating markets around viral moments, memes, and discussions, Based provides a new way to engage with and trade sentiment directly.

Opinion Markets are still in their early stages, but they point to a shift in how speculation interacts with digital culture. As these markets grow, they will define how sentiment is priced, creating new ways to engage with and capitalize on the narratives shaping the internet.